INNOVATIVE VIEWPOINTS Reframing tropical savannization: linking changes in canopy structure to energy balance alterations that impact climate SCOTT C. S 1,TARK ,  DAVID D. BRESHEARS ,2,3 SUSAN ARAGON ,4,5,6 J 2,7UAN CAMILO VILLEGAS , DARIN J. L ,2 M 1 1,8 9,10AW ARIELLE N. SMITH , DAVID M. MINOR, RAFAEL LEANDRO DE ASSIS , D 11ANILO ROBERTI ALVES DE ALMEIDA , GABRIEL DE O ,12,13LIVEIRA SCOTT R. S ,3ALESKA A 14 15 9 16BIGAIL L. S. SWANN , JOSE MAURO S. MOURA , JOSE LUIS CAMARGO , RODRIGO DA SILVA , LUIZ E. O. C. A 13,17 18RAGA~O , AND R. COSME OLIVEIRA 1Department of Forestry, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan 48824 USA 2School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721 USA 3Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721 USA 4Center of Integrated Studies of Amazonian Biodiversity (CENBAM), National Institute of Amazonian Research (INPA), Manaus, Amazonas 69067-375 Brazil 5Program of Postgraduate Studies of Natural Resources of the Amazon, Federal University of Western Para (UFOPA), Santarem, Para, Brazil 6Institute of Environment, Territory and Renewable Energy (INTE), Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru (PUCP), Lima, Peru 7Grupo de Ecologıa Aplicada, Universidad de Antioquia, Medellın, Colombia 8Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland at College Park, 2181 Samuel J. LeFrak Hall, 7251 Preinkert Drive, College Park, Maryland 20742 USA 9Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, PDBFF, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Av. Andre Araujo, 2936 - Petropolis, Manaus, Amazonas 69067-375 Brazil 10Natural History Museum (NHM), University of Oslo (UiO), P.O. Box 1172,Blindern, Oslo 0318 Norway 11Department of Forest Sciences, “Luiz de Queiroz” College of Agriculture, University of S~ao Paulo (USP/ESALQ, Piracicaba, S~ao Paulo, Brazil 12Department of Geography and Planning, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M5S 3G3 Canada 13Remote Sensing Division, National Institute for Space Research (INPE), S~ao Jose dos Campos, Brazil 14Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195 USA 15Interdisciplinary Training Center, Federal University of Western Para, Santarem, Para 68040-255 Brazil 16Laboratorio de Fısica e Quımica da Atmosfera - Bloco 29, Rua Vera Paz, Santarem, Para 68040-260 Brazil 17College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK 18Embrapa Amazonia Oriental, Santarem, Para 68020-640 Brazil Citation: Stark, S. C. D. D. Breshears, S. Aragon, J. C. Villegas, D. J. Law, M. N., Smith, D. M. Minor, R. L. de Assis, D. R. A. de Almeida, G. de Oliveira, S. R. Saleska, A. L. S. Swann, J. M. S. Moura, J. L. Camargo, R. da Silva, L. E. O. C. Arag~ao, and R. C. Oliveira. 2020. Reframing tropical savannization: linking changes in canopy structure to energy balance alterations that impact climate. Ecosphere 11(9):e03231. 10.1002/ecs2.3231 Abstract. Tropical ecosystems are undergoing unprecedented rates of degradation from deforestation, fire, and drought disturbances. The collective effects of these disturbances threaten to shift large portions of tropi- cal ecosystems such as Amazon forests into savanna-like structure via tree loss, functional changes, and the emergence of fire (savannization). Changes from forest states to a more open savanna-like structure can affect local microclimates, surface energy fluxes, and biosphere–atmosphere interactions. A predominant type of ecosystem state change is the loss of tree cover and structural complexity in disturbed forest. Although impor- tant advances have been made contrasting energy fluxes between historically distinct old-growth forest and savanna systems, the emergence of secondary forests and savanna-like ecosystems necessitates a reframing to consider gradients of tree structure that span forest to savanna-like states at multiple scales. In this Innovative Viewpoint, we draw from the literature on forest–grassland continua to develop a framework to assess the consequences of tropical forest degradation on surface energy fluxes and canopy structure. We illustrate this framework for forest sites with contrasting canopy structure that ranges from simple, open, and savanna-like to complex and closed, representative of tropical wet forest, within two climatically distinct regions in the v www.esajournals.org 1 September 2020 v Volume 11(9) v Article e03231 INNOVATIVE VIEWPOINTS STARK ETAL. Amazon. Using a recently developed rapid field assessment approach, we quantify differences in cover, leaf area vertical profiles, surface roughness, albedo, and energy balance partitioning between adjacent sites and compare canopy structure with adjacent old-growth forest; more structurally simple forests displayed lower net radiation. To address forest–atmosphere feedback, we also consider the effects of canopy structure change on susceptibility to additional future disturbance. We illustrate a converse transition—recovery in structure following disturbance—measuring forest canopy structure 10 yr after the imposition of a 5-yr drought in the ground-breaking Seca Floresta experiment. Our approach strategically enables rapid characterization of sur- face properties relevant to vegetation models following degradation, and advances links between surface properties and canopy structure variables, increasingly available from remote sensing. Concluding, we hypothesize that understanding surface energy balance and microclimate change across degraded tropical for- est states not only reveals critical atmospheric forcing, but also critical local-scale feedbacks from forest sensi- tivity to additional climate-linked disturbance. Key words: Amazon; climate change; Earth System Models; energy balance; forest transitions; lidar; rapid field assessment; savannization; vegetation structure. Received 10 October 2019; revised 5 May 2020; accepted 12 May 2020; final version received 22 June 2020. Corresponding Editor: Debra P. C. Peters. Copyright: © 2020 The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.  E-mail : scstark@msu.edu INTRODUCTION many areas, where savanna is maintained by fire feedbacks that promote grass, light-demanding Tropical ecosystems are undergoing unprece- fire-resilient trees, and open canopy structure, dented rates of anthropogenically caused distur- and thus fire recurrence (i.e., a fire trap; Des- bance and conversion. For example, in Brazil in jardins et al. 1996, House et al. 2003, Hirota et al. 2019, there was a roughly 50% increase from the 2011, Ratnam et al. 2011, Staver et al. 2011, Hoff- previous year in deforestation followed by exten- mann et al. 2012, Oliveras and Malhi 2016). Now, sive fires (Escobar 2019), with similar forest loss a wider range of forest types are present in these rates recently recorded for Amazônia in other regions because of changing disturbance regimes countries such as Colombia and Bolivia (Kala- that create degraded and potentially pre-savan- mandeen et al. 2018, Salazar et al. 2018). These nized or secondarized forest states (Barlow and changes impact ecosystem processes at local, Peres 2008, Nepstad et al. 2008; degraded forests regional, and global scales, including increasing we define as having lost one or more ecosystem atmospheric greenhouse gases such as CO2, CO, functions over a period of time). To address the CH4, and N2O (Gash et al. 2004, Davidson et al. needs of forecasting future climates with Earth 2012, de Oliveira et al. 2019). Efforts to model the system approaches (IPCC 2013, 2014) and devel- effects of climate change suggest that portions of oping management strategies to reduce savan- Amazon forests are threatened with conversion nization (Malhi et al. 2009), it is now essential to into a savanna due to tree loss from deforestation, develop a detailed understanding of forest–atmo- fire, and die-offs associated with extreme climate sphere interactions over this range of degraded conditions and drought (Brando et al. 2008, 2019, forest types. This understanding requires expand- Nepstad et al. 2008, Phillips et al. 2009, Arag~ao ing quantitative characterization of canopy func- and Shimabukuro 2010, Allen et al. 2015). Savan- tion and microclimate changes within the nization (sometimes called savannification) is the spectrum of degraded states, and knowledge of transformation of forest to lower biomass how functional and microclimate changes will savanna structure, associated with the emergence feedback to influence the sensitivity of forests to of fire in the system (Silverio et al. 2013). Forest droughts, heatwaves, and fires that could cause and savannas represent alternate forests states in additional degradation. v www.esajournals.org 2 September 2020 v Volume 11(9) v Article e03231 INNOVATIVE VIEWPOINTS STARK ETAL. Changes from a mature forest state to more Rappaport et al. 2018, Shao et al. 2019, Tang open savanna-like structure, including secondary et al. 2019, Almeida et al. 2019a). or transitional forest, can affect the local energy Our specific objectives in this Innovative View- fluxes, tipping the balance and associated pro- point article are to, in Section 1: Reframing, pro- cesses (including feedbacks) toward savanniza- pose a reframing of different types of forest tion (Cochrane and Laurance 2008, Arag~ao and transitions in tropical wet forest to highlight the Shimabukuro 2010, Hirota et al. 2010, Ordway need to understand the impacts of forest change and Asner 2020). Although advances have been on energy balance and the consequences for made in quantifying energy fluxes in Amazon forest–atmosphere interactions; in Section 2: Con- forests and in distant savannas in adjacent trasts, illustrate potential to aide in addressing regions (da Rocha et al. 2009, Restrepo-Coupe this knowledge gap by presenting example data et al. 2013), less is known about changes in sets of vegetation differences and associated surface energy fluxes and microclimates associ- energy characterizations based on short field ated with forest disturbances. Furthermore, a campaigns; and, in Section 3: Challenges and Pro- predominant type of ecosystem state change is spects, discuss hypotheses about energy implica- tree cover loss of different amounts in tropical tions of vegetation change to more open and less forest due to human-related disturbances (Curtis complex structures, including the sensitivity of et al. 2018, Bullock et al. 2020), while degraded degraded forest to fire-driven savannization and forests are becoming more widespread and may other vegetation change feedbacks. We conclude become the dominant mode of Amazon forests suggesting steps to improve the savannization in the future (Bullock et al. 2020). These changes vegetation change pathways in Earth System necessitate a reframing of tropical forest energy models (ESMs) and to develop new remote sens- fluxes and microclimates from the current per- ing programs to closely monitor the changing spective that primarily contrasts old-growth for- structure and function of tropical canopies in est with savanna in a different region, to Amazon forests and elsewhere. considering a multidimensional gradient of tree cover and structure that spans forest to grass- SECTION 1: REFRAMING TROPICAL FOREST land at multiple scales, including within a given SAVANNIZATION AS TRANSITIONS ALONG location and climate. This reframing can comple- CANOPY STRUCTURE AND ENERGY BALANCE ment ecological and biogeographic understand- GRADIENTS ing that considers a wide spectrum of disturbance, recovery, and historical community We propose a simple conceptual framework assembly-related structural states that span trop- that links disturbance and forest state transitions ical wet forests to savannas (Pennington et al. with gradients of canopy structural complexity 2000, Barlow and Peres 2008, Berenguer et al. and cover (Fig. 1A), and with surface energy bal- 2014, Chazdon 2014), as well as advances in ance components, to improve modeling of remote detection of forest structure change (Rap- forest–atmosphere interactions (Fig. 1). The key paport et al. 2018, Smith et al. 2019, Bullock et al. global change drivers considered that can trigger 2020). Here, we propose a program for the con- transitions among these states include degrada- ceptual and empirical steps needed to achieve tion from deforestation, fires, and drought and this reframing—including providing new data heatwaves, and forest regrowth (Fig. 1B). Struc- on forest structure–energy balance and microcli- tural predictor variables that may be detected mate contrasts—to meet these needs. We draw remotely include forest canopy cover and canopy from previously developed dryland literature on structure, tree size distribution, and leaf area forest–grassland continua (Breshears 2006 and index (LAI; Fig. 1C). The relationships between references therein) and expand that framework these predictor and response variables for micro- from a focus on cover to include canopy struc- climate and energy balance components—in- tural complexity (canopy cover, and vertical and cluding albedo, net radiation, sensible to latent horizontal variation), which can be retrieved heat (Bowen ratio), surface roughness and from advanced remote sensing technologies boundary layer conductance, and near-ground (Chambers et al. 2007, Stark et al. 2012, 2015, incoming solar radiation—are incompletely v www.esajournals.org 3 September 2020 v Volume 11(9) v Article e03231 INNOVATIVE VIEWPOINTS STARK ETAL. Fig. 1. Conceptual figure of proposed framework for assessing the consequences of tropical forest disturbance and forest degradation on surface energy balance, and subsequent ecological and ecosystem properties, extend- ing a temperate drylands framework focused on woody plant cover (Breshears 2006) to consider canopy struc- tural changes more generally. This framework is useful for a variety of gradients of forest structure, including those related to deforestation and degradation in one direction and forest regrowth/regeneration in the other (A), and, most relevant to tropical forest savannization, decreases in structure and cover associated with tree die-off from droughts, heatwaves, and the emergence of fire (B). The characteristics to consider along these gradients are those integrally linked to microclimate and canopy function—forest cover and structure, tree size distribution, and LAI (C). As noted in Table 1, these characteristics influence energy balance components and associated microclimates in predictable ways, even if relationships are not completely characterized (D). These functions could increase or decrease in nonlinear as well as linear ways or could follow a peaked curve relationship where the maxima usually falls below 50% tree cover (Breshears 2006, Villegas et al. 2014; E). For nonpeaked relation- ships, the degree to which tree canopy units of a given structure interactively influence the area around them determines how linear or nonlinear and threshold like the functional responses are (Breshears 2006). v www.esajournals.org 4 September 2020 v Volume 11(9) v Article e03231 INNOVATIVE VIEWPOINTS STARK ETAL. Table 1. Hypothesized functional responses for key properties moving from closed, mature lowland tropical for- est canopy to very open canopy structure, driven by a combination of fire, tree mortality, deforestation and degradation. Feedback on future Representative Representative Functional Threshold disturbance/ temperate primarily tropical Property response strength savannization dryland references references Albedo Increasing with Expected Impact via Swann et al. 2012 Faria et al. 2018 loss of cover nonlinearities, alteration to energy (M), Bonan 2019 (O, c); von and complexity possible weak budget. Increase (O), Jin et al. 2012 Randow et al. allowing thresholds with savannization (O, g) 2004 (O, c); surface to means mitigation Loarie et al. reflect more of increasing 2011 (O, g); solar radiation, sensible heat, Houghton 2018 but albedo may enhancing (M, g); de decrease resilience Oliveira et al. following fire 2016 (O, M, g); because of de Oliveira charring (Faria et al. 2019 (O, et al. 2018) M, g); de Oliveira and Moraes 2013 (O, M, g); this study Net Decreasing with Expected With the increase of Morecroft et al. 1998 Gash and Nobre radiation loss of cover nonlinearities, albedo after loss of (O, c); Anthoni 1997 (O, M); (Rn) and complexity possible weak cover, total energy et al. 2000 (M, O); von Randow (higher albedo) thresholds available in the Jin et al. 2012 (O, g) et al. 2004 (O); canopy to be de Oliveira partitioned into et al. 2016 (O, sensible and latent M, g); de heat will decrease, Oliveira et al. while surface 2019 (O, M, g); radiation and heat de Oliveira and fluxes could Moraes 2013 increase. Altered (O, M, g), microclimates Giambelluca impact plants et al. 2009 (O, c); this study Bowen ratio, i.e., Potentially Nonlinear with Sensible heat Campbell and Restrepo-Coupe sensible/latent, increasing as likely thresholds, increases can Norman 1998 (O); et al. 2013 (O, heat flux sensible heat may be weak or increase VPD, Villegas et al. 2017 g); da Rocha partitioning flux increases, strong promoting fire (O); Villegas et al. et al. 2009 (O, and latent heat spread (Ray et al. 2014 (H) g); von Randow flux decreases 2005, Cochrane et al. 2004 (O, with loss of and Laurance c); de Oliveira cover and 2008) and et al. 2019 (O, complexity, but increasing forest M, g); this more complex sensitivity. But study relationship reduction in fuel possible after fire can reduce potential for future fire (Balch et al. 2008) Near-ground Increasing with Nonlinear region of Higher soil Breshears 2006 (H, Galo et al. 1992 solar radiation cover and rapid change; evaporation effect g); Martens et al. (O); Bellingham complexity loss moderate and hotter higher 2001 (M, g); Royer et al. 1996 (O); threshold-type VPD near-ground et al. 2010 (O, g); de Oliveira response. Weak or environments may Breshears and et al. 2016 (O, more complex create a more Ludwig 2010 (O, g) M, g); relationships with stressful Royer et al. 2012 Montgomery tree size and environment for (O, g); Villegas and Chazdon density in early/small growth et al. 2010a (O, g), 2001 (O, g); this regeneration stages, promoting Villegas et al. 2010b study (Montgomery and savannization (O, g) Chazdon 2001) v www.esajournals.org 5 September 2020 v Volume 11(9) v Article e03231 INNOVATIVE VIEWPOINTS STARK ETAL. (Table 1. Continued.) Feedback on future Representative Representative Functional Threshold disturbance/ temperate primarily tropical Property response strength savannization dryland references references Surface roughness Increasing from Nonlinear and high An increase in Villegas et al. 2014 Tan et al. 2019 and boundary closed mature possibilities for boundary layer (H, g); Campbell (O, M, g); layer canopy to thresholds, conductance over and Norman 1998 Dickinson and conductance gappy open including in structure change (O); Lee and Kennedy 1992 forest, but may multiple response has the potential to Soliman 1977 (O); (M, c); decrease regions, and increase VPD, Lee 1991a (O); Lee Spracklen and moving to multimodality intensify water 1991b (O), Wolfe Garcia-Carreras shorter statured stress, and increase and Nickling 1993 2015 (M, c); this savanna; sensitivity to (O), as framed in study (via possibly disturbance/ Breshears et al. roughness peaked or savannafication. If 2009 (H, g); Sankey quantification) multimodal a complex et al. 2013 (O, g) relationship relationship, the feedback will be weaker/ limited Notes: Source abbreviations are H, hypothesized; O, observations; M, modeled. Study type abbreviations are c, contrast of two points; g, gradient of vegetation structure–function was considered. characterized (Fig. 1D). These relationships We highlight relevant findings from dryland could either decrease, increase, or intermediately and tropical research to illustrate this canopy peak with decreasing forest canopy complexity structure–function framework including patterns and cover; linear and nonlinear responses are that have been hypothesized, documented, and possible within response types (Fig. 1E). predicted for a diverse range of properties such In this conceptual framework, we draw on as albedo, net radiation (Rn), surface roughness, the rich literature from forest–grassland con- and near-ground (below woody canopy) solar tinua in temperate systems—often dryland gra- radiation patterns, among others (Table 1). For dients from semi-arid grassland through semi- example, as woody plant cover decreases, albedo arid forest (Breshears 2006, and references and near-ground solar radiation increase, which therein, including Archer et al. 1988, Belsky increases the Bowen ratio (von Randow et al. and Danham 1994, Scholes and Archer 1997, 2004, Villegas et al. 2014; citations in Table 1). Breshears and Barnes 1999, Martens et al. 2001, Additionally, these patterns are often nonlinear, House et al. 2003, Sankaran et al. 2004, 2005; potentially displaying a range of threshold-type see also Wang et al. 2010, Villegas et al. 2014, rapid change responses (Fig. 1E), depending on Villegas et al. 2015, Ratajczak et al. 2017)—that the degree of interactivity between vegetation describe connections between microclimate, units (determining beneath canopy vs. inter- components of energy balance, canopy cover, canopy space in Breshears 2006). Near-ground and structural complexity. A central premise of solar radiation, for example, decreases nonlin- this framework is that woody plants (shrubs early in plots with increasing canopy cover; in and trees) have a disproportionately large influ- one instance, near-ground areas receiving the ence on the microclimate and associated energy maximum amount of daily solar radiation in a balance beneath and around them and that this semi-arid woodland made up more than a third influence changes, often in nonlinear ways, of the ground surface at 21% tree cover, but with the increasing prevalence of woody plants dropped to just a tenth of the area at 34% tree and an elevated vegetation canopy. In wood- cover, and were completely absent by 41% tree land and savanna systems, gradients in the cover (Martens et al. 2001). Maximum canopy vegetation canopy can often be conceptualized height and vertical foliage distribution also as changes in canopy cover, though other struc- impact near-ground radiation (Sankey et al. 2013, tural factors may also be important (which we Villegas et al. 2014). Similarly, surface roughness will elaborate in the context of tropical forest and associated wind flow category—impacting below). mixing and canopy conductance (Bonan 2015)— v www.esajournals.org 6 September 2020 v Volume 11(9) v Article e03231 INNOVATIVE VIEWPOINTS STARK ETAL. change nonlinearly with increasing cover. While empirical and theoretical development (Wehr natural vegetation canopy data is needed, one et al. 2017, Wu et al. 2018). However, the results wind tunnel study using solid cylinders found presented above, and theoretical foundations isolated wake flow at less than 14% cover, wake (Bonan 2008), suggest strong predictive quantita- interference flow at 14–40% cover, and skimming tive links between forest canopy structure and flow at >40% cover (Wolfe and Nickling 1993; function; with additional development, these and see Breshears et al. 2009). Ultimately, struc- links should open transformative remote obser- tural properties impact the full range of compo- vation data streams on degraded forest function. nents of surface energy and its partitioning into Soil factors may also impact surface energy sensible and latent heat fluxes. fluxes (Bonan 2008) and influence the distribu- Gradient analyses considering elements of tion of savannas (Lloyd et al. 2008, Lehmann canopy structure (e.g., cover or LAI) in relation et al. 2011) and canopy structure and function to microclimate and energy balance conse- gradients (Schietti et al. 2016). Lehmann et al. quences of these gradients, and forest change 2011, for example, identify soil fertility as a key more broadly, remain relatively rare in Amazon factor influencing arid savanna forest transitions, forests. However, a number of tropical site con- though no single fertility threshold was identi- trast studies, experimental disturbance manipu- fied for savanna. Furthermore, soil structural fac- lations, analyses tracking the after effects of tors such as sand content influence patterns of uncontrolled disturbances, and modeling results soil water availability and plant water relations offer insight on structure–function relationships (Sperry and Hacke 2002, Oliveras and Malhi (Table 1). Investigations of the impact of forest 2016). Seasonally flooded forests are also at risk structure gradients and change on albedo typi- of transitions to degraded savanna-like states as cally contrast forest with highly altered vegeta- a result of high fire sensitivity and susceptibility tion types canopies. For example, higher albedo due to superficial root mats and other factors is typically found in pasture, crops, and cleared (Almeida et al. 2016, Flores et al. 2017). Together, lands, relative to forest, at least after initial post- soil structure and nutrients likely impact the fire increases in absorptive charred materials chances of long-term savannization following subside (de Oliveira and Moraes 2013, de Oli- disturbance and may alter relations between veg- veira et al. 2016, 2019, Faria et al. 2018). The etation structure and energy balance compo- albedo of regenerating secondary forest appears nents, but more studies are needed. to converge toward mature forest values (low Energy balance and forest structural attributes values, i.e., ~0.1); however, seasonal differences have been shown to change with forest distur- in albedo and net radiation appear linked to bance; however, not enough information is avail- structure in these forests (de Oliveira and Moraes able for robust characterizations of the functional 2013, de Oliveira et al. 2016, 2019). Foundational relationships highlighted by our framework in energy and materials flux network studies high- tropical forests. The seasonal dynamics of the light large scale gradients in Amazon forest func- sensible to latent heat flux partitioning, the tion, including variation in seasonal patterns and Bowen ratio, varies between wetter and drier for- the roles of water vs. radiation limitation of pho- ests; dry forest and savanna exhibit strong tosynthesis and latent and sensible heat fluxes increases in the Bowen ratio in the dry season, (da Rocha et al. 2009, Restrepo-Coupe et al. while wet forest remains relatively insensitive to 2013). The broad gradients studied to date rainfall seasonality (da Rocha et al. 2009, include major tropical forest biome transitions, Restrepo-Coupe et al. 2013). Brando et al. 2019 including forest to savanna and forest to the drier detail the impacts of 13 yr of fire impact and cerrado vegetation, which may also be associated recovery in a controlled experiment in south cen- with differences in canopy structure (Marselis tral Amazônia; contrasting flux measurements in et al. 2018, Shao et al. 2019, Tang et al. 2019). Ulti- burned and unburned (control) plots, evapotran- mately, discerning the detailed links between spiration (ET) was similar even though LAI in canopy structure and ecosystem functions the control was 70% higher, potentially consis- including surface energy dynamics remains an tent with a nonlinear functional response. A area of emerging research requiring greater foundational study that imposed a drought v www.esajournals.org 7 September 2020 v Volume 11(9) v Article e03231 INNOVATIVE VIEWPOINTS STARK ETAL. experimentally for 5 yr in the central Amazon when disturbed forest is more susceptible to found a 30% reduction in leaf area by the end of additional disturbance, and when ecological measurements (Brando et al. 2008; see discussion recovery trajectories are altered. One of the most below of our canopy resurvey of this study site). consequential feedbacks occurs when structural Patterns of light transmission through the forest change promotes fire because of the capacity of are also impacted by disturbance and local fire to profoundly reorganize ecosystem and canopy structure gradients. Montgomery and community structure, including by converting Chazdon (2001), working in Costa Rican mature wet forest to savanna (Malhi et al. 2009, Silverio and secondary forests, found relationships et al. 2013), or secondarized low biomass forest between stem densities and near-surface radia- comprised of pioneer trees (Barlow and Peres tion transmittance in mature forest but not for 2008), or creating alternate regeneration path- regenerating forest; also observing vertical ways (Mesquita et al. 2001, Norden et al. 2011). heterogeneity in radiation environments, these Disturbances that open the forest canopy create authors concluded that the multilayered hetero- conditions favorable to fire spread following geneity of the canopy played a complex role in human-driven ignition, increasing boundary radiation transmission dynamics. Little direct layer conductance, reducing humidity, and work is available on the role of canopy structure increasing air speed and temperatures (Ray et al. gradients in surface roughness and boundary 2005, Cochrane and Laurance 2008). Fire itself layer conductances; models generally assume may cause these alterations, but an important that deforestation will reduce roughness and caveat is that fires also reduce fuel loads, which thus mixing (Lean and Warrilow 1989, Shukla has a negative feedback on fire spread in the near et al. 1990, Spracklen and Garcia-Carreras 2015). term (Balch et al. 2008). Canopy opening distur- While we do not consider larger scale climate bances such as fires promote grass establishment processes in depth here, it is important to note which can facilitate future fire ignition and that these processes contribute to several addi- spread, particularly if the newly established tional near-surface atmosphere impacts includ- grass species are fire adapted (Silverio et al. ing the local formation of clouds, aerosols, and 2013). The recurrence of burning promotes the rainfall, which alter albedo and heating processes establishment of fire-resilient savanna species in the atmosphere (Bonan 2015, Lagu€e et al. with thick bark that coexist with grasses, creating 2019). Deforestation generally decreases rainfall a positive feedback to fire susceptibility enhanc- over the Amazon in model-based studies (Knox ing savannization (Ratnam et al. 2011, Hoffmann et al. 2011, Davidson et al. 2012, Lawrence and et al. 2012). Vandecar 2015, Spracklen and Garcia-Carreras The reduction of forest cover and structural 2015), including threshold-type nonlinear reduc- complexity from disturbance can promote addi- tions and bioclimatic savannization in the south- tional canopy simplification through positive for- ern and eastern Amazon (Pires and Costa 2013). est change feedback mechanisms. The loss of Forest disturbance can have significant influ- cover and increased canopy openness can ence on the future ecological state of the increase the vulnerability of trees not only to fire impacted forest, including by enhancing the risk but also to wind throw during storms (Silverio of savannization (Cochrane and Laurance 2008, et al. 2019). Increasing openness, light penetra- Arag~ao and Shimabukuro 2010, Silva et al. 2018). tion, and understory vapor pressure deficit Disturbance broadly impacts the landscape (VPD) were associated with edge effects in the structure of forest and savanna mosaics, as well Biological Dynamics of Forests Fragments Project as continua of structural gradients within vegeta- (BDFFP), which led to the establishment of light tion types. For example, Soares-Filho et al. (2012) wooded faster growing and faster dying trees in found that a deforestation-related feedback is the the years that followed fragmentation (Nasci- primary driver of increased fire frequency in a mento and Laurance 2004, Almeida et al. 2019b). data-driven model of a highly disturbed central Lianas may also increase after disturbance (Lau- Amazonian landscape. Feedbacks are also linked rance et al. 2001) and can lead to additional tree to microclimate and energy balance impacts fall (Hunter et al. 2015). Negative feedbacks associated with forest structural change and arise between disturbance and canopy change may v www.esajournals.org 8 September 2020 v Volume 11(9) v Article e03231 INNOVATIVE VIEWPOINTS STARK ETAL. also be at play; particularly, disturbance surface properties associated with vegetation enhances light environments in the lower strata structure, particularly those related to energy of forests, promoting tree growth and the infill- balance and radiation fluxes (Villegas et al. 2017). ing of gaps (via gap regeneration dynamics; Bro- Although sacrificing accuracy and temporal kaw 1985), which can also suppress fire (Oliveras scope relative to long-term tower installation and and Malhi 2016). Linking specific microclimate flux monitoring approaches, this approach offers impacts and the enhancement of regeneration the potential to more rapidly assess energy bal- potential in vertically structured canopies ance partitioning in multiple sites and potentially remains an emerging area of research (Stark et al. multiple stages of degradation and forest-sa- 2015). However, the interplay of microclimates, vanna gradients. This capacity can help close light-limited tree regeneration, and drought and gaps in the scope of assessment of the conse- fire disturbances is not yet fully understood (see quences of forest structural change, offering field also Oliveras and Malhi 2016), which precludes measurements in recently disturbed forest, and more informed predictions about forest change degraded forests undergoing recovery or savan- trajectories, including recovery and savanniza- nization. Ecosystem and atmospheric functions tion, and associated longer term ecosystem assessed with this rapid approach were compa- impacts (Fig. 1A). Recent work has suggested rable to long-term quantification of similar vege- that tree functional composition change over suc- tation change impacts within the ecosystems cession, in terms of differentiation on growth– studied (boreal and semi-arid North American survival and stature–recruitment tradeoffs, can forest in Villegas et al. 2017), though additional explain forest structural change, highlighting the validation and development may offer improve- likely importance of community and demo- ment. Here, we applied this approach in Amazon graphic dynamics in forest transitions (Ru€ger forests for the first time to obtain example com- et al. 2020). Furthermore, understanding the parisons among sites, providing patterns consis- specific long-term impacts of forest disturbances tent with our framework for the investigation of on demographic components, recruitment, forest functional and structural gradients. growth, and mortality is increasingly recognized To quantify structural and functional contrasts as central to predicting climate forcing (McDow- across forest disturbance and savanna transi- ell et al. 2020). tions, we estimated changes in structural com- plexity (tree cover, LAI, tree size structure, and SECTION 2: TROPICAL SITE CONTRASTS vertical leaf area heterogeneity) and energy bal- WITHIN CANOPY STRUCTURE–ENERGY ance variables (surface roughness, Bowen parti- GRADIENTS tioning ratio, and albedo) in paired simultaneous measurement plots. The rapid assessment A key challenge for understanding changes method detailed in Villegas et al. 2017, and in the along forest structure gradients and their conse- context of this Amazon forest study, in Support- quences for energy balance is the ability to ing Information Appendix S1, is based on the fol- quickly detect and assess these changes across lowing components: (1) the establishment of heterogeneous landscapes. This is particularly focal forest plots where tree surveys provided relevant where changes from disturbance are diameter distributions and basal area; (2) the occurring rapidly or have novel impacts relative measurement of canopy structure with a combi- to long-term patterns of vegetation heterogene- nation of hemispherical photos (used to calculate ity, such as in the central Amazon. The conven- direct site factor, DSF, a metric of incident radia- tional approach to understanding these gradients tion) and a profiling lidar (PCL) to quantify the is through the establishment of long-term tower- vertical and horizontal variation of canopy sur- based eddy covariance flux monitoring networks face areas, of which leaves are the primary com- (Baldocchi et al. 2001), which limits the scope of ponent (Parker et al. 2004); and, (3) the assessment in large and quickly changing sys- quantification of surface energy dynamics with tems. A recently developed rapid campaign incoming and outgoing above-canopy solar radi- approach can supplement these long-term moni- ation from a net radiometer—and, in profile, toring networks for the characterization of wind speed, humidity, and temperature—that v www.esajournals.org 9 September 2020 v Volume 11(9) v Article e03231 INNOVATIVE VIEWPOINTS STARK ETAL. utilized lightweight sensors and a portable mast roughness, derived from lidar data appeared system secured above the canopy. From these higher in savanna/savannized forest (BDFFP sav- measurements, we estimate Bowen ratio by annized forest, 2.92 m; Alter do Cha~o savanna, assuming that vertical fluxes of sensible and 3.47 m), relative to fragments and regenerating latent heat are proportional to vertical gradients forest (BDFFP regenerating forest, 2.74 m; Alter of temperature and humidity (Shuttleworth forest fragment, 1.84 m), though reconstructed 2012). Soil heat flux is also measured in the tower areas were too small for spatially controlled sta- footprint (Appendix S1). tistical comparison. Interestingly, tall vertically We considered two study regions in the central heterogeneous canopies of old-growth forest Amazon with gradients of structural complexity were more rugose (Manaus—Reserva Ducke, and tree cover, including large-statured mature 4.79 m, 95% confidence intervals, CI 4.44–5.14; rainforest, smaller-statured closed canopy forest Manaus—ZF2, 4.65 m, CI 4.16–5.13; Tapajos— with disturbance histories, and open savanna (or K67, 7.55 m, CI 7.11–7.99; sites and PCL lidar savannized forest) sites. Climate variables and, collection described in Stark et al. 2012), which to the extent possible, soil conditions at a given highlights the possibility of multimodality of study region were held constant. In the first rugosity over structural gradients. Similarities region, near the confluence of the Tapajos and were apparent when comparing estimated verti- Amazon rivers near the city of Santarem (Para, cal leaf area density profiles; in particular, both Brazil), in the village of Alter do Ch~ao, we con- gradients displayed tall vertically complex ducted a rapid assessment of differences mature rainforest structure with maximum foli- between natural savanna, nearby forest frag- age heights near 50 m, shorter intermediate com- ments—here natural island-like patches—dis- plexity forests around 20 m tall with developed turbed periodically by fire (Magnusson et al. upper canopy layers, and open savanna (or 2008), and mature rainforest 45 km away at the savanna-like) structure with a few trees or tree- K67 site of the Tapajos National Forest (TNF; lets reaching between 10 and 15 m (Fig. 3). Both where there is long-term tower-based eddy gradients displayed correspondence between covariance flux monitoring; Saleska et al. 2003). stem diameter size structure and vertical leaf We note that Alter do Ch~ao has sandy soil, while area structure (consistent with prior findings soil is clay-rich in the TNF. In a second region Stark et al. 2012, 2015). Similar contrasts were ~50 km north of the city of Manaus (Amazônas, apparent comparing leaf area estimated from Brazil), we investigated the impacts of recent for- lidar leaf area density profiles across the struc- est clearing in a regrowing pasture with remnant tural gradients, wherein mature forests displayed trees and in an ~20-yr-old secondary forest— LAI values around six, intermediate complexity areas cleared and under study as part of the recovering forest and forest fragments, were long-term BDFFP project (Laurance et al. 2002). slightly lower, with LAI closer to five, and savan- We compared these disturbed areas to nearby nized/savanna sites were open-canopied with (within 20 km) mature rainforest contiguous LAI between 0.5 and 2 (Table 2, Fig. 4). LAI and with extensive undisturbed rainforest; here, all vertical patterns of leaf area were, thus, similar in sites were characterized by clay-rich soil. Gradi- our two study regions, but structural differences ents in forest structural complexity were multidi- were also apparent. Most notably, the BDFFP mensional, but broadly similar in the two region displays a more developed mature forest regions, as revealed by the data (and described upper canopy, as has been noted previously below). Within each area, mature vs. disturbed (Stark et al. 2012). The historical savanna site of forest contrasts were collected through simulta- Alter do Cha~o also appeared to differ relative to neous deployment of rapid assessment towers the savannized forest/pasture of the BDFFP. and instrumentation. Specifically, in the BDFFP, a thicket of a vine Measurements revealed differences in the locally known as cipo-de-fogo (genera Davilla numbers and distributions of stem sizes, the ver- and Doliocarpus) formed around persistent tical and horizontal structure of leaf area, and the woody vegetation, while tall herbaceous dicots canopy surface layer, over vegetation contrasts dominated the vegetation at ground level. In (Figs. 2, 3). Rugosity, a metric of surface contrast, Alter do Ch~ao was grass-dominated v www.esajournals.org 10 September 2020 v Volume 11(9) v Article e03231 INNOVATIVE VIEWPOINTS STARK ETAL. Fig. 2. Three-dimensional canopy surfaces derived from ground-based lidar at (disturbed) Alter do Ch~ao for- est fragment, and savanna sites (top) and Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project (BDFFP) recovering forest and savannized forest/pasture sites illustrate the impacts of forest disturbance on canopy height and rugos- ity. Canopy height is higher in less disturbed sites, while rugosity may be higher in more disturbed sites (though the sample size precludes statistical comparison of the rugosity metric calculated as the standard deviation of canopy surface height). and trees and shrubs were sparse, had open DSF (Royer et al. 2010, Villegas et al. 2010a, b)— canopies, and represented fire-tolerant species increased in the low LAI open sites. Lower DSF, typical of savanna (Miranda 1993, Magnusson albedo, and ground heat fluxes correspond with et al. 2008); this translated to a lower LAI and higher available radiation/energy (for latent and lower near-ground leaf area in Alter do Ch~ao. sensible heat flux; Rn - G) in the closed canopy Canopy structural differences among sites had disturbed forest relative to the savanna/savan- apparent consequences for radiation transmis- nized sites. Over the short observation window sion, and other microclimate and surface energy of this study, we did not identify differences in canopy functions. The progression of decreasing the sensible to latent heat fluxes (Bowen ratio). LAI from mature to degraded to savannized for- However, available energy is partitioned to latent est corresponded with patterns in other vari- heat with primacy over sensible heat when water ables, in the same or opposing directions is available, as it was during our study. Since (Table 2, Fig. 4). All contrasts were significant there was higher available net radiation in the and consistent in direction over the comparable forest sites (particularly morning through mid- forest structural gradients in the two regions, day, Fig. 5), corresponding with lower albedo with the exception of the Bowen ratio (Table 2, and soil heat flux, the similar Bowen ratio values Fig. 4). The proportion of potential near-ground mean that there were higher latent than sensible solar radiation reaching the soil surface—the heat fluxes overall. Higher latent heat fluxes, and v www.esajournals.org 11 September 2020 v Volume 11(9) v Article e03231 INNOVATIVE VIEWPOINTS STARK ETAL. Fig. 3. Vegetation structure—integration of stem diameter and lidar vertical vegetation information. Panels from left to right move from mature tropical rainforest (control/comparison sites), to disturbed, and then v www.esajournals.org 12 September 2020 v Volume 11(9) v Article e03231 INNOVATIVE VIEWPOINTS STARK ETAL. (Fig. 3. Continued) savanna/savannized forest. Top two rows present the Alter do Cha~o region gradient (mature forest comparison in the Tapajos National Forest, K67 site), and the bottom two rows, the BDFFP gradient. Basal area profiles are derived from the stem frequency distributions shown in each panel pair (pink). Frequency panels also include forest type information. Lidar-derived leaf area density profiles are shown in green; ribbons display 95% confi- dence intervals around mean values. Gray shaded regions are size class basal area plotted vs expected height of the size group (Feldpausch et al. 2011, Stark et al. 2012), highlighting (partial) correspondence with vertical leaf area profiles. Bottom panels for each region show the tree size frequency distributions (purple bars). Abbrevia- tion regen. indicates regenerating. net radiation differences, suggested greater (and suggesting a likely reduction of leaf area in generally high) transfer of water to the atmo- upper strata at that time. sphere in the forest fragments and regenerating Collectively, these examples highlight expected forest relative to savanna and savannized forest. but to date rarely quantified patterns of canopy Temporally and climatically coincident data were structural, functional change in tropical forests not available from mature forest eddy covariance that relate directly to savannization and help sites. Albedo values of the disturbed forest sites, reveal structure–energy relationships, though however, were close to those reported for the expanding sampling over broader gradients is old-growth forest sites (Araujo et al. 2002, von needed to quantify functional responses essential Randow et al. 2004, Miller et al. 2011), suggesting for predictive ecosystem science (see Fig. 1). that even with apparently slightly reduced LAI, Although these examples are insufficient to span the low albedo of these closed canopy disturbed full gradients of canopy structure, they provide sites was comparable to mature closed canopy initial insights into how such differences might tropical forest. be placed within the proposed framework. We also leveraged research infrastructure pre- viously developed in the Seca floresta experi- SECTION 3: REFRAMING TROPICAL FOREST ment at the TNF. We tested whether there were SAVANNIZATION, CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS persistent or even elevated canopy impacts 10 yr after the cessation of 5 yr of experimental Studies in tropical forest structure and func- drought from rain throughfall exclusion (Nep- tion can be particularly challenging due to vege- stad et al. 2007, Brando et al. 2008). This contrast tation height, accessibility, and infrastructural (pre- and post-drought) enabled us to consider limitations. Limited funding has further con- temporal changes in addition to the structural strained studies of vegetation structure in Ama- spatial contrasts illustrated above, to highlight zon Basin tropical forests. Despite the enormous potential forest change feedback. From the end importance of the Amazon forests and concerns of the manipulated drought in 2005 to our resur- about the potential for savannization—high- vey in 2015, the LAI in the control plot did not lighted prominently in the recent IPCC assess- change significantly, whereas the drought plot ment (IPCC 2013, 2014)—there are to date fewer had a reduced LAI in 2005 that recovered to con- than 10 flux towers currently operating in this trol levels by 2015 (Fig. 6, top row; 2015 control region. Flux towers are extremely valuable for mean 5.64 with 95% CI 5.34–5.94, and experi- studying differences between forest types over mental 5.71 with CI 5.45–5.97). We were also able major vegetation gradients, including forest vs. to confirm that this recovery was complete in savanna contrasts (da Rocha et al. 2009, terms of the height profile of vegetation, with Restrepo-Coupe et al. 2013), and in rare cases very similar leaf area profiles occurring in the over local vegetation contrasts (Brando et al. control and the drought plots in 2015 (Fig. 6, bot- 2019). However, distant comparisons over major tom row). We note that though vegetation profile gradients are confounded by climate and varia- data are not available from the experimental per- tion in vegetation types (functional composition) iod, higher mortality of large trees in the drought when used as proxies to investigate changes that plot was reported (Nepstad et al. 2007), might occur in the process of savannization. v www.esajournals.org 13 September 2020 v Volume 11(9) v Article e03231 INNOVATIVE VIEWPOINTS STARK ETAL. Table 2. Means and 95% confidence intervals (parentheses) for structural, energy balance, and associated micro- climate variables in forest contrasts. BDFFP/Manaus Alter do Ch~ao/Santarem Region Forest Mature/ Degraded/ Mature/ type old-growth secondary Savannized old-growth Degraded Savanna LAI 6.20 (6.05–6.35) 4.60 (4.26–4.93) 1.25 (0.93–1.57) 5.73 4.97 (4.69–5.25) 0.23 (0.16–0.31) (5.57–5.89) DSF 0.26 (0.24–0.28) 0.64 (0.57–0.72) 0.32 (0.00–0.65) 0.93 (0.90–0.95) Rn-G 104.42 37.21 (1.30–73.12) 144.15 31.94 (0.39–63.50) (W/m2⋅s) (80.17–128.68) (102.62–185.68) Bowen 0.13 (0.05–0.21) 0.72 (0.22–1.21) 1.86 (0.93–2.80) 2.77 (1.31–4.24) Ratio Albedo 0.100 (0.097–0.102) 0.165 (0.160–0.171) 0.092 (0.090–0.095) 0.143 (0.135–0.150) Note: See Fig. 4. Furthermore, flux network comparisons lack per- field campaigns such as the one presented, but spectives on local vegetation structure gradients expanded beyond the pilot demonstration to associated with disturbance (the local flux con- cover more complete canopy structure gradients trasts offered by the Fazenda Tanguro fire experi- (e.g., related to age of regeneration, impact level, ment are an exception to these generalizations; or disturbance type), while also controlling for Brando et al. 2019). Disturbed and degraded for- environmental and climate variation. The objec- ests account for a large fraction of Amazon Basin tive of field campaigns would be to quantify the —recently reported by Bullock et al. 2020 as 17% functional relationships between elements of of the ecoregion in 2017 (in contrast to 11% of canopy structure and surface energy balance Amazon forest cleared for agriculture, and 52% and, ideally, to evaluate additional environmen- higher than previously estimated)—while sec- tal and biogeographic dependencies, needed to ondary growth may account for 28% of Neotrop- transform Earth system approaches. With a lar- ical forest (Chazdon et al. 2016). Degraded forest ger investment, this could also be studied with a types represent a significant risk for savanniza- network of flux towers, which would provide tion (Cochrane and Laurance 2008, Arag~ao and additional longer term information on energy, Shimabukuro 2010), which could have critical water, and carbon fluxes. The Fazenda Tanguro impacts, including lowering the Amazon forest fire experiment contrasting paired fire impacted carbon sink, altering global temperature (Cox and control forests partially addresses this gap et al. 2004, Malhi et al. 2008), and altering other (Brando et al. 2019). There is a critical need, how- climate patterns (Garcia et al. 2016). ever, to move beyond contrasts toward under- Gradient studies are a critical source of ecolog- standing of gradients and functional responses, ical information in tropical forests, as highlighted for which a range of structural states must be by the BDFFP project, which investigates frag- considered (Berenguer et al. 2014, 2018). As with ment size and distance-to-edge effects (Nasci- temperate grassland–forest gradients, many mento and Laurance 2004, Almeida et al. 2019b). microclimate and associated energy balance However, to date, there have not been specifi- impacts of forest structural change will display cally designed and implemented studies that nonlinear functional responses, including focus on canopy structure gradients of degraded decreasing, increasing or peaked relationships tropical forest and secondary growth at risk of (Fig. 1; Breshears 2006). Nonlinearities and savannization and the associated relationships thresholds in functional responses of energy bal- between canopy structure, microclimate, and ance, and related microclimates, may determine surface energy dynamics. Our proposed frame- whether a site or region will transition to a work (Fig. 1) could help guide the development savanna or recovered forest state over the long and installation of one or more gradients to term (Fig. 1; Staver et al. 2011, Hoffmann et al. specifically evaluate canopy structure–energy 2012, da Silva Junior et al. 2019). In the future, relationships. This could be accomplished with combinations of targeted gradient studies and v www.esajournals.org 14 September 2020 v Volume 11(9) v Article e03231 INNOVATIVE VIEWPOINTS STARK ETAL. networks of comparable field contrasts, with detailed structural predictor and energy and microclimate response variable measurements, can directly reveal thresholds and functional responses, and their associated dependencies. Canopy structure–energy relationships in trop- ical forests are essential to global climate func- tion; tropical forests are not simply important for their carbon sequestration value (IPCC 2014). Rather, as we have illustrated (Figs. 2–6), changes in canopy structure have pronounced impacts on energy balance and associated local microclimate. This has implications for locally mediated, and large scale, vegetation change feedbacks. First, at the local scale, sites with less cover and simplified structure create a hotter microclimate that can impact understory vegeta- tion (Nascimento and Laurance 2004, Allen et al. 2015). In harsher microclimates, stress may be amplified for remaining trees, potentially trigger- ing additional tree mortality and creating envi- ronments favorable to fire ignition and spread (Nascimento and Laurance 2004, Ray et al. 2005, Allen et al. 2015). Next, widespread vegetation change impacts on local climates alter large scale temperature, precipitation, and pressure gradi- ents (Spracklen and Garcia-Carreras 2015, Ville- gas et al. 2015), which may cause large scale vegetation feedbacks (Friedlingstein et al. 2014). Changes in climate within one subregion can also alter climate teleconnections and thereby impact vegetation elsewhere—termed an ecocli- Fig. 4. Structural, energy balance, and associated mate teleconnection (Swann et al. 2012, Stark microclimate variables over gradients of decreasing et al. 2016). Thus, if savannization is sufficiently structural complexity and cover. Horizontal lines are extensive, it can potentially affect energy balance means, while shaded bars are estimated 95% confi- and local climate in both the region of tree loss as dence regions. All contrasts are significant at the well as in other regions via climate connections P < 0.05 level by t-tests (or comparison of confidence (Swann et al. 2012, Medvigy et al. 2013, Garcia region in the case of LAI), excepting Bowen ratios, et al. 2016, Stark et al. 2016, Molina et al. 2019). which did not appear to differ. Leaf area index was Structure–energy relationships appear integral estimated from lidar and, in this case, included the to the sensitivity and resilience of tropical forest mature forest site data for comparison. LAI and vege- to structural change from droughts, heatwaves, tation structure impacts on incoming solar radiation fires, deforestation, and other increasing environ- are illustrated by direct site factor (DSF; proportion of mental disturbances at local scales, because of annual direct solar radiation that reaches the surface microclimate alteration and the influence of relative to the open-sky expectation)—and here, higher microclimates on disturbance impacts. However, DSF may have contributed to higher albedo, with the we generally lack rigorous quantitative sensitiv- ground more reflective than leaf area. Rn-G, available ity and resilience relationships that can translate net radiation, and other energy balance components how a particular forest state will respond to a are taken from half-hour mean values between 10 a.m. particular disturbance, under a given climate. In and 2 p.m. in two observed daily cycles. See Table 2. this context, the unresolved sensitivity and v www.esajournals.org 15 September 2020 v Volume 11(9) v Article e03231 INNOVATIVE VIEWPOINTS STARK ETAL. Fig. 5. Diurnal time-series of available energy at the surface (Rn-G) contrasted over forest structural gradients in the central Amazon. Red stars represent savanna or savannized sites, while blue triangles are disturbed but closed canopy forest sites. Note that the averages of these diurnal patterns are the values presented in Table 2, Fig. 4. resilience of tropical forest to droughts, heat- waves, and fires significantly limits Earth System model forecasting of climate change (IPCC 2013, 2014, Friedlingstein et al. 2014, Kloster and Lass- lop 2017, Fisher et al. 2018). To address this uncertainty, we advance here the specific hypoth- esis that canopy structure, surface energy bal- ance, and the sensitivity of tropical forest to droughts, heatwaves, and fires are mechanisti- cally interrelated by the impacts of canopy struc- ture on vegetation microclimates, and the roles of microclimates in vegetation disturbance (e.g., impacting drought mortality and fire spread; Nascimento and Laurance 2004, Ray et al. 2005, Allen et al. 2015). It follows that the relationships explored in our framework (Fig. 1, Table 1) could then be extended to predict sensitivities, and that data on both forest canopy structure and energy balance would improve this predic- tion (Fig. 7). To expand our conceptual frame- work to include sensitivity, we consider two forest change time steps, an initial degradation event driven by deforestation or another distur- bance (Fig. 7 left), and a second step that could Fig. 6. Temporal contrast addressing forest resili- include forest recovery, or continued degradation ence/sensitivity. Forest recovery 10 yr after the Seca (Fig. 7 right). The outcome of this second time Floresta drought throughfall experiment (Nepstad step—recovery or collapse—hinges on forest sen- et al. 2007). Drought is red and control, blue. LAI of sitivity to the disturbances likely to be present, drought plot in 2005 reported in Brando et al. 2008 falls including drought and fire. Thus, as we have below resampling-determined LAI confidence intervals hypothesized, a first feedback to change is possi- (2015) suggesting signi cant recovery (denoted as fi ). ble from the local-scale impacts of degradation v www.esajournals.org 16 September 2020 v Volume 11(9) v Article e03231 INNOVATIVE VIEWPOINTS STARK ETAL. Fig. 7. Hypothesis and proposed research program to address the sensitivity and resilience of tropical forest to future change from structure, energy balance, and microclimate relationships. DT1 is a time step of initial distur- bance, such as deforestation, that causes an old-growth tropical forest to become secondarized or otherwise degraded, with changing energy partitioning (blue to red gradient, with more red indicating more savanna-like energy characteristics). In this time step, rapid field assessment and remote observation of forest structure (lidar) and energy balance (multispectral and thermal approaches) offer the development of quantitative models linking structure and energy balance. In the DT2 second time step, forests may recover, or collapse and be further degraded from additional disturbances. Initiated by the disturbance in time step 1, two feedback pathways medi- ated by forest sensitivity and resilience may affect forest transitions in the second time step. The first, we hypoth- esize, is a local-scale disturbance feedback wherein forest structure and energy balance influence forest sensitivity to drought, heatwave, and fire disturbance because of cross-linking microclimate relationships (e.g., open canopies are drier and hotter, facilitating fire). The second feedback is the well-known large scale vegeta- tion–climate feedback arising when widespread energy balance changes affect climate gradients and processes that in turn impact the forest. Remote and field monitoring over this second time step would test the disturbance feedback hypothesis and allow quantitative model development of forest disturbance sensitivity relationships, that should also account for climate and functional traits. on disturbance sensitivity. The larger scale vege- emission components of energy balance are tation–atmosphere interactions typically already directly observable at fine (few meter) addressed in Earth System models (Friedling- scales from remote sensing technologies (lidar stein et al. 2014) represent a second feedback. In and multispectral radiometric imaging respec- this case, the feedback results from regional alter- tively). From these raw remote observations, ations of temperature and precipitation, which approaches to estimate surface and canopy impacts the forest via its sensitivity to variations microclimates (Zellweger et al. 2019), tree size- in these factors. Other factors influencing forest structured dynamics (Stark et al. 2012, 2015, sensitivity and resilience to disturbance such as Smith et al. 2019), and full surface energy parti- forest functional composition (Brum et al. 2019, tioning (de Oliveira et al. 2016) have been elabo- Ru€ger et al. 2020) would also play a critical role. rated. Thus, an implication of our framework is Advanced fine-grained remote sensing may that, if correct, advances in remote sensing will allow for the rapid application of this frame- open a wide new avenue to monitor both atmo- work to reduce uncertainty in tropical forest spheric forcing relevant to predicting large scale transitions (highlighted in Fig. 7). The quantity climate feedbacks and changing forest sensitivi- and arrangement of canopy surface areas, short- ties, relevant to predicting local-scale distur- wave albedo, and thermal near infrared bance sensitivity feedbacks (Fig. 7). Field v www.esajournals.org 17 September 2020 v Volume 11(9) v Article e03231 INNOVATIVE VIEWPOINTS STARK ETAL. measurements such as those presented in this canopy cover (Asner et al. 2010, Tyukavina et al. article will also be essential to develop faster 2017, Almeida et al. 2019b). Because savanniza- high-throughput remote observation-based tion of tropical wet forests is of such concern approaches to quantify structure, surface energy both locally and globally (IPCC 2014), we need balance, and microclimates across forest degra- to move past historical savanna and forest con- dation and savannization gradients. trasts to the huge areas at risk of savannization, In the context of changes related to forest resili- to understand threshold type and nonlinear ence (Fig. 7 right), the temporal change we docu- response to forest gradients associated with sav- mented at the Seca Floresta experimental annization and other types of forest change. drought study (Fig. 6) provides one example of Given that changes in tree cover and structure forest recovery. In that study, rain throughfall have large impacts on energy balance and was excluded from 1 ha of forest for 5 yr; our ecosystem properties, there is an urgent need to resurvey 10 yr after cessation showed that there quantify these properties not only for primary was no apparent impact on leaf area—that leaf forests, but also for forests with lower, less com- area had recovered from an initially reported plex cover and structure. The proposed frame- 30% loss—and that there were no discernable work (Table 1, Fig. 1), along with the recently differences in the vertical canopy structure. This developed field campaign protocol, provides a forest experiences significant seasonal drought, means for achieving this broader characteriza- with a likely stronger than average drought tion. In addition, recent advances in remote sens- event in 2010 (Lewis et al. 2011; though, we note ing offer new opportunities to quantify and link this region did not experience the severe drought canopy structure to components of energy bal- of others), but, nevertheless, was able to recover. ance, and forest sensitivity and recovery from This may be consistent with findings of Brando disturbance (Fig. 7)—these include multispectral et al. (2008) in the initial study: The forest based approaches to mapping components of appeared to shift allocation to maintain leaf area energy balance, microclimates, canopy functional (estimated with litter production) during the parameters, and airborne and spaceborne lidar drought, at the expense of wood growth. Fur- for forest three-dimensional canopy structure thermore, wood growth appeared to recover characterization, including the new GEDI mis- quickly in the first year after drought cessation. sion (Chambers et al. 2007, Stark et al. 2012, 2015, More recently, detailing responses to experimen- de Oliveira et al. 2016, Shao et al. 2019, Tang tal fire in the southern central Amazon, Brando et al. 2019, Zellweger et al. 2019). Further, many et al. (2019) describe a surprising resilience of forest disturbance factors including intensifica- function in forest undergoing apparent savan- tion of ENSO, and drought generally, as well as nization—even with a 70% decrease in leaf area, direct human alterations, and related fires are fire impacted forests were able to maintain simi- currently increasing in the Amazon (Davidson lar transpiration as control vegetation. This high- et al. 2012). Smoke pollution from land use lights the need to include not just physical change related fires also causes widespread structural information but also vegetation func- adverse respiratory health impacts, which in tional characterization. A more complete under- 2020 may worsen the COVID-19 pandemic (de standing of structure–energy balance change and Oliveira et al. 2020). The much publicized 2019 forest resilience would link variation in leaf func- crisis of Amazon fire and land conversion (Esco- tion and water strategies over canopy strata and bar 2019), and emerging 2020 crisis (de Oliveira canopy microenvironments with the risks of fire, et al. 2020), in this light represent a clear call for mortality, and other factors under droughts and action to safeguard human health and Amazon heatwaves (McDowell et al. 2018, Smith et al. forest climate function, including by better 2019, Brum et al. 2019). understanding the factors that could contribute In conclusion, global change-related droughts, to restoration and recovery of high biomass trop- deforestation, and fire are rapidly converting ical forest, instead of long-term savannization previously structurally complex mature forests (and see Barlow et al. 2020). There is need to both into a matrix of degraded states that range in ver- quantify the consequences of degradation and tical and horizontal variation of leaf area and understand feedbacks to longer term forest v www.esajournals.org 18 September 2020 v Volume 11(9) v Article e03231 INNOVATIVE VIEWPOINTS STARK ETAL. change, particularly to track and monitor ecolog- helped develop and implement the study and partici- ical trajectories that can provide early warning pated in manuscript development. MN Smith, for forest state transitions from high biomass for- DRAlves de Almeida, G de Oliveira conducted analy- est to low biomass and high sensible heat ux sis, and contributed substantial conceptual develop-fl savanna. Ultimately, energy and carbon budgets ment to the manuscript. of disturbed and degraded forest types, and their sensitivities to forest state transitions, must be LITERATURE CITED included in ecosystem model forecasts of cou- Allen, C. D., D. D. Breshears, and N. G. McDowell. pled vegetation–climate change. 2015. On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter ACKNOWLEDGMENTS drought in the Anthropocene. Ecosphere 6:1–55. Almeida, D. R. A., et al. 2019a. The effectiveness of This work was primarily supported by NSF lidar remote sensing for monitoring forest cover Macrosystems Biology EF-1340604 to Michigan State attributes and landscape restoration. Forest Ecol- University, EF-1340624 to University of Arizona, and ogy and Management 438:34–43. EF-1340649 to University of Washington. Additional Almeida, D. A., et al. 2019b. Persistent effects of frag- support was provided for SC Stark by NASA award mentation on tropical rainforest canopy structure #NNX17AF65G and NSF-DEB-1754357, EF-1550686, after 20 years of isolation. Ecological Applications and DEB-1950080, 1702379 awards and by USDA 29:e01952. NIFA. DD Breshears and DJ Law were supported by Almeida, D. A., B. W. Nelson, J. Schietti, E. B. Gorgens, the Arizona Ag Experiment Station (AZRT-1390130- A. F. Resende, S. C. Stark, and R. Valbuena. 2016. M12-222) and NSF-DEB 1550756 and 1824796 (DDB). Contrasting fire damage and fire susceptibility DRA Almeida was supported by the S~ao Paulo between seasonally flooded forest and upland for- Research Foundation (#2018/21338-3 and #2019/14697- est in the Central Amazon using portable profiling 0). S Aragon was supported by a CNPq PDJ grant LiDAR. Remote Sensing of Environment 184:153– (150827/2013-0) and a CAPES-PNPD post-doctoral 160. scholarship. POPA-PELD (Long Term Ecological Mon- Anthoni, P. M., B. E. Law, M. H. Unsworth, and R. J. itoring of Western Para) establishment was supported Vong. 2000. Variation of net radiation over hetero- by the Programa Piloto para a Protec~ao das Florestas geneous surfaces: measurements and simulation in Tropicais do Brasil– INPA/FINEP/European Union a juniper–sagebrush ecosystem. Agricultural and 64.00.0021.00, INPA-PPI-1-3010, the Programa de Pes- Forest Meteorology 102:275–286. quisa em Biodiversidade (PPBio) and by the Centro de Arag~ao, L. E., and Y. E. Shimabukuro. 2010. The inci- Estudos Integrados da Biodiversidade Amazônica dence of fire in Amazonian forests with implica- (CENBAM), INPA and CNPq grant (441443/2016-8). tions for REDD. Science 328:1275–1278. JCV received support from the Proyecto “Trayectorias Araujo, A. C., et al. 2002. Comparative measurements de sistemas socio-ecologicos y sus determinantes en of carbon dioxide fluxes from two nearby towers in cuencas estrategicas en un contexto de cambio ambien- a central Amazonian rainforest: the Manaus LBA tal. Codigo 110180863961” Convocatoria 808-2018 site. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmo- Proyectos de ciencia, tecnologıa e innovacion y su con- spheres. 107:LBA-58. tribucion a los retos de paıs- Colciencias. LEOC Ara- Archer, S., C. Scifres, C. R. Bassham, and R. Maggio. ga~o was supported by CNPq 305054/2016-3, FAPESP 1988. Autogenic succession in a subtropical 2018/15001-6. We also wish to thank the Researchers savanna: conversion of grassland to thorn wood- and staff of the Biological Dynamics of Forest Frag- land. Ecological Monographs 58:111–127. ments Project (BDFFP), the Large Scale Biosphere- Asner, G. P., et al. 2010. High-resolution forest carbon Atmosphere Experiment in the Amazon (LBA, in San- stocks and emissions in the Amazon. Proceedings tarem and Manaus), and PPBio of the National Insti- of the National Academy of Sciences USA tute for Amazonian Research (INPA, Brazil), and the 107:16738–16742. Federal University of Western Para (UFOPA) for Balch, J. K., D. C. Nepstad, P. M. Brando, L. M. Curran, exceptional support. This is study 759 of the BDFFP O. Portela, O. de Carvalho Jr, and P. Lefebvre. 2008. Technical Series. Author contributions: SC. 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